and says the chippy administration is planning a turkish back to offensive on the strategic city of. iran's atomic energy organization says last month's fire at the natanz nuclear facility was an act of sabotage a spokesman for the government agency says security authorities will reveal the reason behind the blast in due time protesters in southern iraq have called on a local governor to resign old risk more on rest demonstrators are calling for justice over the killing of a number of prominent activists the governor of sr he has altered all migrants in leave the island by midnight on monday citing coronavirus fears but it's not clear how the decree can be implemented since those policies are decided by the taliban government the order also bans the arrival of any new migrants or refugees coming up next on inside story.

what's behind the recall draw is in global code with 19 infections several countries are reporting so well the biggest numbers since the pandemic began should we be worried a more look. this is it's a story. hello welcome to the program on the wrong nearly 9 months since coded 9 from the chinese city of the virus appears to be spreading false than all around the world some countries are reporting the highest daily infection rates. india parts of $3000000.00 cases of the recording just under $70000.00 on sunday researchers say

infections have leveled off and its 2 largest cities of mumbai in new delhi but is rising quickly in poor rural areas south korea a country praised for its initial handling of the pandemic has reported its high list daily total since march the government may bring back strict social distancing roles including closing businesses and schools couldn't they have it in 1000 continues to spread across the country more than 300 new cases were reported every day over the last 3 days the number of patients is increasing not only in the metropolitan area but in all of the countries 17 major cities and provinces we are facing the crisis of a mass fire spreading across the country the latin america region has reported 17000 deaths over the past week but the world health organization says the daily infection rate in the worst affected country brazil is leveling off germany france

spain and italy are recording rising daily totals however italy's health minister is rolling out a new lockdown it's a sentiment shared by the w.h.o. director general lockdowns are not a long term solution for any country we do not need to choose between lives and livelihoods or between how and the economy that of choice on the contrary the pandemic is a reminder that how and the economy are inseparable. i. let's bring in our guests and london. a front line urgent care doctor in the u.k.'s national health service or the n.h.s. in hong kong sina ma a geriatrician and president of the hong kong public doctors association and in

boston matthew fox professor of epidemiology a boston's university school of public health a warm welcome to you all i'd like to begin in boston with you matthew fox we his so much about numbers rising about numbers for ling we has so much about what these numbers might mean whether they're going to have an impact on people's livelihoods on people's lives but what do these numbers actually mean what does it mean when cases go up because 9 months on it seems to me that we don't really have a handle on the statistics it's that's right it's a really complicated to try to understand these numbers by themselves so looking at the number of cases of course important but looking at a number of cases by themselves doesn't really tell us the whole story as cases go up obviously we want to take action to try and mitigate the impact but we also want to look at the percent of people who are testing positive so all the tests that we're doing what proportion of those are tested positive we want to see that number

below because that's an indication that we're doing enough testing to be able to stay ahead of the epidemic and then finally we want to look at the very of the infection so we also want to look at number of hospitalizations and eventually the number of deaths and obviously we want to see those coming down in order to know that we're doing a good job at responding to the pandemic era cinema in hong kong i just heard the hong kong authorities are going to introduce a citywide mandatory test for all its citizens is that one way forward is that something we should be looking at for the global i know it's difficult but is it the any way forward. actually there pro ever ok to. our whole population screening day has not yet go to the mandate 3 states but they are actively. asked of a whole population to join those some of the health care workers as well as some of the experts really questions well at this stage whole populations screening for

those silence carrier is it news photo control that the c's expression only actually we has not have enough resources to do all that context raising or do early testing for outbreak high risk pool are similar in london is this the way forward then is home combs model a good one or is this a simply impossible to employ to apply in any city larger than say in a w2w people. i think i'm testing is definitely the way forward in this respect that you'll be able to find people who maybe see could be infected and hence try and cut down the spread of the virus but the problem is they need to be tested at source so for example if these tests need to be implemented when you're walking into a shop these tests need to be implemented and the issue with the tests are if you're negative now it doesn't mean you can't catch it will show signs slightly later on so they're not as effective as they are not down but financially we're stuck in

a situation we're not down with the economy starts to crash so the road difficult situation very difficult are as we did in with but nothing follows then what is the point of these statistics why even have them as a make trick so we want to monitor these numbers so that we can be able to intervene in places where numbers start to go up so if we don't take action as the number of cases starts to go up and as the percent positivity starts to go up then we know that what's going to happen is the number of hospitalizations and the number of deaths are going to start to go up if on the other hand we react to these these statistics by getting people even through actions that are not as severe as lock downs but just getting people to wear masks keep their distance from people as much as they possibly can that we have the ability to bring down the number of cases even without full lock downs and that really is the best bet that we have until we have vaccine available at a cinema in a country like india where 3000000 new cases have been registered surely it's i

mean india is a many a 1000000000 people surely it should be you know a percentage of the population rather than the actual numbers and the percentage figure might give us a much more accurate picture of what's going on is the way that's it's a state the statistics are reported a problem. i think the statistic is so can be quite a misleading sometimes of course that is to itself and also give some good pictures expression for the policy make before the citizen is so over all for 'd the forms to health care workers sometimes statistic can be quite misleading but most importantly i we need to look at this statistic to the actual situation in that's come millett t. for example like. some developing countries or 'd country that with large populations problem a large number of population actually is in a low income class a very poor hygiene and poor living environment that estate is so cannot give

you as a thing so different countries are in different stages of the d.c.'s in some country like hong kong and south korea we have a certain stage of combat that the seas we have prior stage we try to resume the economic activity misunderstands that of the 80 and the dc's come back for some country like south america or india they have never come back to these seas that this is keep going on in a high rise state but at the same time the economy and the life # of the whole populations are also in the very difficult situation it's interesting in a similar particular in the u.k. the economy for the british government is a big driver of trying to open things up but it's also the one thing that will make this worse it will spread cases if that if it opens up without precautions is the is their way of separating the 2 alike the. b.h.o.

story maintains it's not just lives as livelihoods as well and you just have to deal with the. i think the situation the u.k. is a possible run the whole world a lot of businesses are closing down because they will one by one dependent upon each other so for example the restaurants depend on consumers to the time they're the restaurant industry or the me market the meat markets you know the farmers except for so it's a domino effect and lock down is excellent but it has to be done very efficiently to you know control the virus with which around the world so far has included the u.k. when the lockdown took place the virus dropped considerably which was good because of the n.h.s. we were in a very difficult situation because you know we were getting nonstop patients coming in called the coming in i mean some of the call the returning of the you know more than 4 hours because just the huge shock of the system you know with this wireless so things have calmed down and the good news is because we're in the summer at the moment there's less people coughing less issues going on so the virus the yanks

especially don't see it and because they don't see anybody getting ill they assume it's not around now i know if you're not friends who've had it and they have told me that you know they feel bad and bruised for a long time after you know coming over the initial symptoms so what i was told the youngster that all my friends are not guys is going to have an impact on you now and if you feel ok they may be long term implications which we don't know about such as lung scarring so it's a very difficult balance but when it comes to the economy if people haven't got money in the pocket and food to feed their family they are going to go out unfortunately work so this is a very very difficult situation we're all in at the moment matthew fox is the look down i mean our guest in london said look down is a good is a great thing it does work but you can't it's not an indefinite thing at the very beginning of the pandemic people were suggesting that the whole world should just go into lockdown just to get a sense of the numbers just to get a sense of where it is i mean if everybody shut down all at the same time and stop

level at traffic as one example of that would that help or is that just simply impossible in the no health little. well you would be out for i mean there's no doubt that if we were seen examples of lock downs that have been highly effective at bringing down the number of cases and that has the knock on effect of reducing hospitalizations and reducing the number of deaths about 3 to 3 or 4 weeks later so absolutely it would work but it's it seems to me experience likely that we could ever coordinate the world to do an entire lockdown that would be able to last for long enough that we would be able to suppress the virus to a level at which we could start to continue to resume normal activity so well that it would be it would be effective i don't see it as being very reasonable if you just look here in the united states we could even get the entire t. of the united states to shut down in coordination so doing that across the world just doesn't seem feasible or a cinema so it would help but it's actually impossible so they're full we just have

to live with this virus now we have to change our behavior has and that is that is what we need to do however that's still going to have an impact on the economy even if the social distancing rules in place and all of us will stuff it well having an impact how long is living with the virus sustainable. actually i think 1st of all if we need to calculate a sort of economic impact we can take was sort of what is the minimal economic activity we need in order to make the 'd whole society or 'd the whole economy system still working but actually to. not go not going to borrow in that population the other thing is actually re i know that there is for example recently a german university they had taken experiments. was misha's recanted.

during a concert in order to. a number of infection but we can still enjoy the concerts so i think we now we know more and more was sort of at of a t's bring the transmission most for example at the video desk make you take down your mosque a devotee debt make use of it to gather a devotee does the last corporate people this happen in south korea when they have a big outbreak in a group of church people the same as in hong kong we are all great seems to related to our 100 people on a dining. day take down them are saying and danced so we now find us some sort of the higher risk some sort is some sort of that have been this is lois so a more experiment more experience can tell us what sort of activity we can resume or sort of precaution rikan take in order to cut down the transmission maybe

release nguni expect there is a small number of cases in there so sad to be. on and off but before that especially before the vaccination but if the number itself actually. within the past the t. of our head. of course this town maybe really need to get along with it and there's still some sort of economic activity is safe that's something you write as one of the questions i want to put as an ally what we're looking at is not just about the economy is it's about strain on the health care services it's about how health care services can cope if there's a certain percentage of cases that can happen then maybe it's better to allow those to happen knowing the health care system can cope with it and that brings the economy back on but is that of a false dichotomies of a is it just a false word i think the issue is twofold so either we be

sensible wait for a vaccine to come out which is something i am very proactive for i think you know if we're mosques we be sensible i think we can control this considerably because you know this is not like a measles virus where you know the virus to be floating around for a couple of hours after you left the room the coronavirus sensually of cough and it will go down and it will be pretty much dead soon if no one's around you so it's quiet vella to be easy to control if you be sensible wear a mask keep your distance etc so that's the aim and the wait for a vaccine to come and then things can be you know taken back to normal or somewhat back to normal the other side of it is obvious the n.h.s. there is a part of me that thinks people getting infected now is allowing us to cope because it is the some other viruses are not around so as much so we are able to cope come december november december where we're a bit worried because a you have lots of coughs colds flu etcetera flying around in the air except this

time around instead of the normal influenza being caught for one person it's another we worried that it may be the cough corona virus cough corona virus so they could be a huge exponential infection rate of growth of our submission our worry going towards the winter periods in london or a cinema you want to make a comment about the strain on the health care services. actually also. in order to have care system also need to decide their own more though that how how to handle that for example like in singapore. this the if they also have a lot outbreak among those foreign work this for a man you work is and the way to handle it is not allow all of them get into the hospital they build up some isolation and caring facilities and exhibition centers quite simple but actually effective that is what hong kong runs on them as well. in the reason wave we have hundreds of cases every day actually if we all get

them a meter to the hospital a hospital will come out fully occupied but we also learn from the singapore we build some temporary isolation and treatment places in the. exhibition center to attend though those young and relative well patients so i think every country need to build their own system own style how to cope with the disease it may be intermediate and long term my few folks in boston everybody's talking about the vaccine vaccine is what we're waiting for a vaccine is what we need. how it is going to take a little while for vaccine to get on the market i'm sure this want to be rushed to go in the market there's far too much money to be made so it will get to the market at some point quite quickly i'm sure but is the vaccine the own so because the 23

month will be covered by this particular vaccine that we get from done team you know these things do you tell you right. so we don't know for sure what a vaccine is going to look like but if i had to guess it's not likely to be a vaccine that a 100 percent effective and we already know that u.b.c. here in the us surveys that show that only about 70 percent of people have said they will take the vaccine when it's available so you put those 2 numbers together and a vaccine itself isn't going to be the end to the problem but a vaccine that was was reasonably effective and a reasonable course of the population took it would certainly bring down the transmission to a point at which this would become a much more manageable 'd condition much like seasonal flu and so that is certainly what we are hoping for but that's going to take some time i think the best estimates at this point are that we're really talking about some time middle of next year before there's large scale distribution of a vaccine and so it's just going to take some time. you know you said that the and

that this vaccine way does come out my only be 70 percent effective is there a case in the past of another vaccine that has been very popular but is about 70 percent effective is there a case study can use to allay people's faces about taking the vaccine. i think seasonal flu is is one of the best examples that we have this you know flu vaccine isn't a panacea and yet we know that if we get a reasonably good vaccine if we distribute it to a reasonable portion of the population that can bring down the community transmission to a point at which we can at least continue our activities as normal seasonal flu it doesn't shut down the economy now it is true that that covert is certainly more deadly than seasonal flu but having that vaccine as as one way to bring down the the amount of transmission and to keep it manageable is an example of what we could be trying to follow with with kobe when

a vaccine is available in london you had all matthew fox had to say what do you think do you still think a vaccine is what we should be doing full i think we all need to hope for something and i think of that scene eventually will be something which can stabilize the system and that's not the said it's not going to get rid of it but same of the flu vaccine we can save many lives just like in some of the only patients and asked not to patients and high risk patients that scene like the flu vaccine i think something similar would be a great achievement especially if it's within 2 years i think that would be an amazing achievement or a sentiment you think a vaccine is likely in the next 10 years. actually i know that for some of the best thing country devices are already in the face of the experiment and in some places like russia and china they almost they also they they even announce that vex is a viable for them opt outs of course countries in russia and china actually know

not much how the experiment how the. this is that the conducted so the safety of the vaccine acts as well as the effectiveness. being questionable. so about a best interest to wall rimini to cause either 1st of all whether it's effective or whether it's safe secondly whether it is readily available expression leave for some country as what we mentioned before to south american kuntz south american to india some low income country whether they can afford to invest in whether the rest in country can distribute divestment to judo's countries she's a point i hadn't really thought about before matthew felling so in boston our guest in hong kong i said well actually we don't know about the chinese vaccine we don't know about the russian vaccine because we don't know the studies were done on how they came to that is it time to take a leaf from the tech sites and have open source technology on a vaccine get it all out there so we can all sorts of look at it or do you think

the way the medical health care world is set up that will never happen i think that the way that the medical care system is set up that's just that is unlikely to happen but i do think that would be a good thing and i certainly think that cherry of the information that we're learning throughout these trials is going to be of critical importance to developing strategies not only for doing the problem that we're at right now but planning for future epidemics and making sure that we have the best available 'd strategies to be able to. deliver it to act as quickly as we possibly can but do you matthew do you trust the russians and the chinese with their idea of. well i think it's we don't have any information at this point to be able to say whether these are effective vaccines so to me if the idea that we would have a vaccine this quickly that we could actually know was both safe and effective is it isn't realistic it takes a large number of patients and they have to be followed over reasonable period of

time to be able to know that these vaccines are in fact doing what we want them to do in terms of effectively protecting people but also that they are safe for people who they are causing side effects and as i mentioned before we have a problem here in the united states of many places with vaccine as if it's the people not wanting to get vaccines because they're concerned about the safety so if we roll out of a scene early that doesn't actually have the scientific data behind it to prove that it is safe and effective that's going to cause long term problems not only for their current vaccine in the current situation we're in but for other vaccines so we really do have to be careful that we are actually running out of time but i do want to come back to you on this this idea of the vaccine hesitancy people actually being scared of taking vaccines has been around for a while now has it changed in the u.k. globally since you sense kevin 19 i think the situation there are people that will not take the vaccine and i think this is misinformation that space you can google

and other big companies to control it because we have children who have not been you know given the m.m.r. vaccine a few years ago and now you know we have breakouts of measles for example in the parents a shocked will why is my child suddenly got needles and we have to tell them well fortunately it is your fault because you did not get the backseat and people don't understand until it hits them directly so i think they need to be huge campaign once the vaccine is released for the greater good of everybody look this vaccine is not there for a reason and if everyone takes it we can have very high control of the virus but if people are not taking it will the vaccine is not going to be as effective for those who haven't taken etc so that her to mean she would never be reached as we want so i think it will come down to education education and education. i do want to thank all our guests as an alleged. and matthew fox and thank you too for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting a website al jazeera dot com and for further discussion go to our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash a.j. inside story and you can also join the conversation on twitter we are at

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